Titan's transport-driven methane cycle

The strength of Titan's methane cycle, as measured by precipitation and evaporation, is key to interpreting fluvial erosion and other indicators of the surface-atmosphere exchange of liquids. But the mechanisms behind the occurrence of large cloud outbursts and precipitation on Titan have been disputed. A gobal- and annual-mean estimate of surface fluxes indicated only 1% of the insolation, or $\sim$0.04 W/m$^2$, is exchanged as sensible and/or latent fluxes. Since these fluxes are responsible for driving atmospheric convection, it has been argued that moist convection should be quite rare and precipitation even rarer, even if evaporation globally dominates the surface-atmosphere energy exchange. In contrast, climate simulations that allow atmospheric motion indicate a robust methane cycle with substantial cloud formation and/or precipitation. We argue the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance -- a readily observable quantity -- is diagnostic of horizontal heat transport by Titan's atmosphere, and thus constrains the strength of the methane cycle. Simple calculations show the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance is $\sim$0.5-1 W/m$^2$ in Titan's equatorial region, which implies 2-3 MW of latitudinal heat transport by the atmosphere. Our simulation of Titan's climate suggests this transport may occur primarily as latent heat, with net evaporation at the equator and net accumulation at higher latitudes. Thus the methane cycle could be 10-20 times previous estimates. Opposing seasonal transport at solstices, compensation by sensible heat transport, and focusing of precipitation by large-scale dynamics could further enhance the local, instantaneous strength of Titan's methane cycle by a factor of several.Comment: submitted to ApJ Letter

Survey of timing/synchronization of operating wideband digital communications networks

In order to benefit from experience gained from the synchronization of operational wideband digital networks, a survey was made of three such systems: Data Transmission Company, Western Union Telegraph Company, and the Computer Communications Group of the Trans-Canada Telephone System. The focus of the survey was on deployment and operational experience from a practical (as opposed to theoretical) viewpoint. The objective was to provide a report on the results of deployment how the systems performed, and wherein the performance differed from that predicted or intended in the design. It also attempted to determine how the various system designers would use the benefit of hindsight if they could design those same systems today

How Jurors Evaluate Fingerprint Evidence: The Relative Importance of Match Language, Method Information, and Error Acknowledgment

Fingerprint examiners use a variety of terms and phrases to describe a finding of a match between a defendant\u27s fingerprints and fingerprint impressions collected from a crime scene. Despite the importance and ubiquity of fingerprint evidence in criminal cases, no prior studies examine how jurors evaluate such evidence. We present two studies examining the impact of different match phrases, method descriptions, and statements about possible examiner error on the weight given to fingerprint identification evidence by laypersons. In both studies, the particular phrase chosen to describe the finding of a match-whether simple and imprecise or detailed and claiming near certainty-had little effect on participants\u27 judgments about the guilt of a suspect. In contrast, the examiner admitting the possibility of error reduced the weight given to the fingerprint evidence-regardless of whether the admission was made during direct or cross-examination. In addition, the examiner providing information about the method used to make fingerprint comparisons reduced the impact of admitting the possibility of error. We found few individual differences in reactions to the fingerprint evidence across a wide range of participant variables, and we found widespread agreement regarding the uniqueness of fingerprints and the reliability of fingerprint identifications. Our results suggest that information about the reliability of fingerprint identifications will have a greater impact on lay interpretations of fingerprint evidence than the specific qualitative or quantitative terms chosen to describe a fingerprint match

How Jurors Evaluate Fingerprint Evidence: The Relative Importance of Match Language, Method Information, and Error Acknowledgment

Fingerprint examiners use a variety of terms and phrases to describe a finding of a match between a defendant\u27s fingerprints and fingerprint impressions collected from a crime scene. Despite the importance and ubiquity of fingerprint evidence in criminal cases, no prior studies examine how jurors evaluate such evidence. We present two studies examining the impact of different match phrases, method descriptions, and statements about possible examiner error on the weight given to fingerprint identification evidence by laypersons. In both studies, the particular phrase chosen to describe the finding of a match-whether simple and imprecise or detailed and claiming near certainty-had little effect on participants\u27 judgments about the guilt of a suspect. In contrast, the examiner admitting the possibility of error reduced the weight given to the fingerprint evidence-regardless of whether the admission was made during direct or cross-examination. In addition, the examiner providing information about the method used to make fingerprint comparisons reduced the impact of admitting the possibility of error. We found few individual differences in reactions to the fingerprint evidence across a wide range of participant variables, and we found widespread agreement regarding the uniqueness of fingerprints and the reliability of fingerprint identifications. Our results suggest that information about the reliability of fingerprint identifications will have a greater impact on lay interpretations of fingerprint evidence than the specific qualitative or quantitative terms chosen to describe a fingerprint match

Technological trends affecting the manufacturing sector of New York City

The author concludes that manufacturing is still a vital part of New York City's economy, despite substantial job losses in this sector over the past two decades. An influx of skilled immigrants, the use of advanced technologies in production processes, and the ability to respond rapidly to global markets give New York City a strong future in manufacturing high-value goods.New York (N.Y.) ; Technology ; Federal Reserve District, 2nd

The Proficiency of Experts

Expert evidence plays a crucial role in civil and criminal litigation. Changes in the rules concerning expert admissibility, following the Supreme Court\u27s Daubert ruling, strengthened judicial review of the reliability and the validity of an expert\u27s methods. Judges and scholars, however, have neglected the threshold question for expert evidence: whether a person should be qualified as an expert in the first place. Judges traditionally focus on credentials or experience when qualifying experts without regard to whether those criteria are good proxies for true expertise. We argue that credentials and experience are often poor proxies for proficiency. Qualification of an expert presumes that the witness can perform in a particular domain with a proficiency that non-experts cannot achieve, yet many experts cannot provide empirical evidence that they do in fact perform at high levels of proficiency. To demonstrate the importance ofproficiency data, we collect and analyze two decades of proficiency testing of latent fingerprint examiners. In this important domain, we found surprisingly high rates of false positive identifications for the period 1995 to 2016. These data would qualify the claims of many fingerprint examiners regarding their near infallibility, but unfortunately, judges do not seek out such information. We survey the federal and state case law and show how judges typically accept expert credentials as a proxy for proficiency in lieu of direct proof of proficiency. Indeed, judges often reject parties\u27 attempts to obtain and introduce at trial empirical data on an expert\u27s actual proficiency. We argue that any expert who purports to give falsifiable opinions can be subjected to proficiency testing and that proficiency testing is the only objective means of assessing the accuracy and reliability ofexperts who rely on subjective judgments to formulate their opinions (so-called black-box experts ). Judges should use proficiency data to make expert qualification decisions when the data is available, should demand proof of proficiency before qualifying black-box experts, and should admit at trial proficiency data for any qualified expert. We seek to revitalize the standard for qualifying experts: expertise should equal proficiency

Elastic ice shells of synchronous moons: Implications for cracks on Europa and non-synchronous rotation of Titan

A number of synchronous moons are thought to harbor water oceans beneath their outer ice shells. A subsurface ocean frictionally decouples the shell from the interior. This has led to proposals that a weak tidal or atmospheric torque might cause the shell to rotate differentially with respect to the synchronously rotating interior. As a result of centrifugal and tidal forces, the ocean would assume an ellipsoidal shape with its long axis aligned toward the parent planet. Any displacement of the shell away from its equilibrium position would induce strains thereby increasing its elastic energy and giving rise to an elastic restoring torque. We compare the elastic torque with the tidal torque acting on Europa and the atmospheric torque acting on Titan. For Europa, the tidal torque is far too weak to produce stresses that could fracture the ice shell, thus refuting a widely advocated idea. Instead, we suggest that cracks arise from time-dependent stresses due to non-hydrostatic gravity anomalies from tidally driven, episodic convection in the interior. Two years of Cassini RADAR observations of Titan's surface are interpreted as implying an angular displacement of ~0.24 degrees relative to synchroneity. Compatibility of the amplitude and phase of the observed non-synchronous rotation with estimates of the atmospheric torque requires that Titan's shell be decoupled from its interior. We find that the elastic torque balances the atmospheric torque at an angular displacement <0.05 degrees, thus coupling the shell to the interior. Moreover, if Titan's surface were spinning faster than synchronous, the tidal torque tending to restore synchronous rotation would certainly be larger than the atmospheric torque. There must either be a problem with the interpretation of the radar observations, or with our understanding of Titan's atmosphere and/or interior.Comment: Icarus, in pres

Computer program determines thermal environment and temperature history of lunar orbiting space vehicles

Program computes the thermal environment of a spacecraft in a lunar orbit. The quantities determined include the incident flux /solar and lunar emitted radiation/, total radiation absorbed by a surface, and the resulting surface temperature as a function of time and orbital position